Divination in practice – how well did I predict the 2022 sets?

In the last couple of years, I have tried to predict what new LEGO Harry Potter sets that would be released. Back in February 2022, I wrote a post about what possible LEGO Harry Potter sets I expected to be released in mid-2022. Now that 2022 has come and gone, I better take stock of how well I did…

I’m sure many of us have been pondering what new sets we might get in the future. To be honest, I’m not better at divination that Harry Potter (and he wasn’t good). And I’ve got no crystal ball nor tea leaves reading skills to assist. But I think it is fun to try, so I have kept up the tradition. For those interested, my divination score from in predicting the 2021 sets can be seen here. But this post is about the accuracy of my predictions for the sets expected in mid-2022. This was posted in February 2022, with the March 2022 wave of sets already well known by then.

Overall, I didn’t do that well, only getting about half right or somewhat right. It was probably better than the year before though.

The anniversary sets in 2021 focused on the first two books, but did also include Hogsmeade from the Prisoner of Azkaban. So in 2022, I thought LEGO would continue with more sets from the third book (noting we’d already seen the Hospital Wing sets announced to come out in March 2022 at the time I did my “predictions”) as well as the forth book: The Goblet of Fire. But 2022 proved to be a much more mixed bag – and in particular the mid-2022 wave covered a lot of scenes from the later movies, which had not previously been well covered by sets.

In addition to what sets, I also had to guess how many. This is what I guessed:

Based on previous years, I expect the mid-year series to include about 4-5 minifigure scaled sets and up to two “display” type sets, maybe with another two minifigure scale sets around September to coincide with “Back to Hogwarts” day. As usual, they would come at different price points.

Blockwarts prediction from early 2022

Enough context – let’s see how well I fared. Below is a list of what sets I predicted along with some commentary to each suggested set on how correct I was:

Hogwarts: Defence against Dark Arts

Small set: 16 stud wide room for Hogwarts representing Professor Lupin’s Classroom. Basically a modern remake of the 2004 set 4752 in the new modular Hogwarts design. Minifigures could include: Professor Lupin, Neville Longbottom, Snape/boggart.

• Incorrect – there was nothing like that.

Hagrid’s Care of Magical Creatures lesson

Small set: Small grass field with fence on one side and small tree – the perfect setting for Hagrid to give his lesson. Minifigures could include: Buckbeak as well as Harry Potter, Hagrid and Draco Malfoy (with an apple as per the movie to please the drapple fans). It should also include a copy of the Monster Book of Monsters.

• Incorrect – there was nothing like that. There was a small set with magical creatures though – with the Hogwarts Carriage and Thestrals set.

Hogwarts: The Prison Tower

Medium set: A remake of the 2004 set “Sirius Black’s Escape” (4753) to complement the Buckbeak set above and Hospital Wing set from the March release. The main feature should be Sirius Black’s in his prison tower, but it could also on the lower level have the statue hiding the secret passage to Hogsmeade (to link with the Hogsmeade sets). Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Sirius Black as well as Fred and George Weasley (giving Harry the Marauders map).

• Correct – the core idea is similar enough to the Hogwarts Courtyard: Sirius’s Rescue set we got in 2022.

Hogsmeade: The Shrieking Shack

Medium set: To supplement last year’s Hogsmeade set (76388), which was one of my favourites, I could imagine a remake of the 2004 set, though just with the Shrieking Shack. Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Ron Weasley, Hermione Granger, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew Wormtail and Professor Snape. I wonder if such as set would look anywhere like my version, which I wrote about here.

• Correct – I will call this one as well, though I had expected a smaller set with just the Shrieking Shack, where the published set also included the Whomping Willow.

Tri-wizard tournament: The Third Challenge – The Mace

Medium/large set: I have long wanted to see the third challenge at the Tri-wizard tournament be turned into a set. It could include some cool features like moving hedges, with the contestants and monsters like spiders and boggarts. At one end, spectators (head of schools) will be watching who to touch the trophy first. Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Cedric Diggory, Fleur Delacour, Viktor Krum, a dementor/boggart, Professor Dumbledore, Professor Moody and Igor Karkaroff (a remake of him is long overdue – last version was in 2005!).

• Incorrect – This remains a gap to be covered by an official set. While the first two challenges have been covered and even seen remakes (one to appear in March this year), we have yet to see our first set covering the third challenge.

Hogwarts: The library

Large set: This set focuses on some of the scenes from The Goblet of Fire. Long overdue is a decent library (including librarian), where Harry and Hermione can look for ways to stay under water for an hour. It should also include a room with the Goblet of Fire, a closet where Rita Skeeter can interview Harry Potter, and Snape’s potion storeroom where Dobby found gillyweed for Harry. To make it a large set, it could also feature Dumbledore’s office and/or the Prefects bathroom, though both were in the Clocktower set from 2019. So I’d rather go with the Owlery, where Harry can ask Cho if she want to be his date for the Yule Ball. Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Hermione Granger, Cho Chang, Dobby, Madam Irma Pince (the Librarian), Professor Snape and Professor Dumbledore.

• Mostly correct – I had many of the ideas we saw in the Hogwarts: Dumbledore’s office set we got in 2022, which included the library and librarian. Unfortunately, we didn’t get Rita Skeeter, but she has been confirmed to appear in 2023!

Hogwarts Express w. Hogsmeade station

Large set: Basically an updated version of Hogwarts Express, which has been around since 2018. I don’t expect the train to be too different, but maybe the would opt for a motorised version this time. And it could be made with Hogsmeade station rather than Kings Cross, to tie in with last year’s Hogsmeade set. Minifigures could include Harry Potter, Ron Weasley, Hermione Granger, Train driver, Professor Lupin and a dementor.

• Incorrect – I could claim this was partly correct, but the large direct to consumers set we got was very different from what I had in mind. So I’ll accept this as a no.

I completely missed that we would also get the 12 Grimmould Place and Ministry of Magic sets, having focused on the third and fourth movies.

Display sets

For this category, I stated that I would expect a “display” set or two, one of them would be a kinetic model like the recent Hedwig and Fawkes models, and suggested it could be a snitch?

• Mostly correct – we did indeed get another kinetic model, though that was the Hungarian Horntail dragon.

Other sets

It was a no-brainer that there would be another LEGO Harry Potter advent calendar, so I’m not giving me any credit for that.

Finally, I also “predicted” that we would get another large direct-to-consumers (D2C) exclusive Harry Potter set in 2022 (as we got it in 2018, 2020 and 2021). Again, this was not surprising. My best idea was the much sought after Diagon Alley extension with Gringotts.

• Incorrect – we didn’t get Gringotts, but got the very nice Hogwarts Express display set instead. I’m still working on my review of that one.

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I’m writing up my thoughts about the mid 2023 sets now. I know a lot of firm rumours are out there – so I’m trying to avoid looking at those, till I’ve put down all my thoughts – which I started on during the Christmas break, but never got the time to finish. I think that is going to be a tough one – as I don’t sense any direction from the 2022 sets, which was quite an assortment of movies they covered. But let’s see – I could get lucky…

Till then, Build the Magic!