Divination in practice – how well did I predict the 2023 sets?

With the New Year just around the corner, it is custom to look back. One of my regular annual posts is trying to foresee the sets that will be released in the coming year. With 2023 almost gone, I better take stock of how well I did with my 2023 predictions…

I’m sure many of us have been pondering what new sets we might get in the future. To be honest, I’m not better at divination that Harry Potter (and he wasn’t any good). And I’ve got no crystal ball nor tea leaves reading skills to assist. But I think it is fun to try, so I have kept up the tradition. For those interested, my divination score from in predicting the 2021 sets can be seen here, while my accuracy predicting the 2022 sets are covered here.

But this post is about the accuracy of my predictions for the sets expected in mid-2023. This was posted in March 2023, so obviously way too late to predict any of the March 2023 sets, which were already in the shops.

Overall, I didn’t do that well, getting only about a third correct. Last year I did better, getting about half right or at least somewhat right.

Sometimes, a year will have a theme – like the early movies, or a new modular Hogwarts. In 2022 the sets were all over the place, and I assumed (rightly, as we shall see) that 2023 would be similar, making it really hard to guess what sets that would come. So generally, I opted for scenes that had not previously been well covered by sets (or at least not in recent years).

In addition to what the sets would be, I also had to guess how many. This is what I guessed:

Guided by previous the years, I’d expect 5-6 sets mid-year with a potential second wave of 1-2 sets in September to coincide with the September 1st “Back to Hogwarts” day. But with so many sets early in the year, I’ll go for 5 “play sets” and a “display set” in June/July and an advent calendar and the usual large direct to consumers (D2C) set in September, probably with a promotional “Gift With Purchase” running around that time too.

Blockwarts prediction from early 2023

Enough context – let’s see how well I fared. Below is a list of what sets I predicted along with some commentary to each suggested set on how correct I was:

Hogwarts: Armour Gallery

Small add-on section to the modular Hogwarts Castle with a corridor with suits of armour. The set could include Professor McGonnagall, two suits of armour and one or two attacking dementors.

So, did we get anything like that?

• Incorrect – there was nothing like that. I still think it would be a cool idea though!

Escape from Aragog

We have seen Aragog many times – most recently in 2018, but it might be due for an update – this time as a slightly larger set with Aragog, a few slightly smaller spiders – which can come down from the trees above – and with the wild roaming Ford Anglia coming to the rescue. Minifigures would be Harry and Ron. Hagrid and Fang would be a nice addition too.

• Incorrect – there was nothing like that.

Tri-wizard tournament: The Third Challenge – The Mace

I have long wanted to see the third challenge at the Tri-wizard tournament be turned into a set. It could include some cool features like moving hedges, with the contestants and monsters like spiders and boggarts. At one end, from a grand stand, spectators (head of schools) will be watching who to touch the trophy first. Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Cedric Diggory, Fleur Delacour, Viktor Krum, a dementor/boggart, Professor Dumbledore, Professor Moody and Igor Karkaroff (a remake of him is long overdue – last version was in 2005!).

• Incorrect – there was nothing like that (sadly).

So far three wrong out of three. Not a great start…

Hogwarts Express w. Hogsmeade station

Large set which is basically an updated version of Hogwarts Express, which has been around since 2018. I don’t expect the train to be too different, but maybe the would opt for a motorised version this time. And it could be made with Hogsmeade station rather than Kings Cross, to tie in with the 2021 Hogsmeade Village Visit and 2022 Shrieking Shack and Whomping Willow sets. Minifigures could include Harry Potter, Ron Weasley, Hermione Granger, Train driver, Professor Lupin and a dementor.

• Correct (finally) – there was a new Hogwarts Express with Hogsmeade station.

Hogwarts Owlery

Larger set with focus on scenes from The Goblet of Fire. It should of course include a room with the Goblet of Fire, but also a closet where Rita Skeeter can interview Harry Potter, and Snape’s potion storeroom where Dobby found gillyweed for Harry. It could also include the Prefects bathroom where Harry with some help from Moaning Myrtle discover the secret of the golden egg. Finally, it should include the Owlery, where Harry can ask Cho if she want to be his date for the Yule Ball. Minifigures could include: Harry Potter, Hermione Granger, Cho Chang, Dobby, Moaning Myrtle, Professor Snape and Professor Dumbledore.

Another option for a larger Hogwarts sets (which I’d expect) is one covering the final battle scenes from the Deathly Hallows part 2.

• Correct (kind of – I spread my guess pretty wide above, but we did get a battle of Hogwarts set, and an Owlery is coming in March 2024).

Display set: Kinetic model of Quidditch snitch

I did put forward two guesses. One was a kinetic type model with movement, with the snitch (which was my suggestion from 2022 as well) hovering above a carrying box (somewhat similar to the Hogwarts Magical Trunk from 2022), which also had a quaffle and two bludgers.

An alternative guess was a large buildable figure supplementing Harry and Hermione from 2022. The obvious candidate would of course be Ron – maybe with scabbers. But the set with Harry and Hermione has been on sale many times, so I thought they might not have sold well enough to trigger a companion set. So my first choice ended up being the snitch mentioned above.

• Incorrect (though the idea of a large buildable figure wasn’t far off, as we did get Dobby approximately in the right scale). In addition we got another display set with the buildable Patronuses.

Advent calendar: Christmas at the Burrow (September wave)

For advent calendar, an interesting theme could be the Christmas at the Burrow from Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince.

• Incorrect (while we did get an advent calendar, it was covering Hogsmeade in winter time instead. See my review here).

Exclusive direct-to-consumer (D2C) set: Gringotts Bank (September wave)

As the expected annual large, exclusive D2C set, I did reuse my prediction from 2022 about a Gringotts bank with Ukrainian Ironbelly dragon. This was of course guided by the strong push from LEGO Harry Potter fans to get such a set. There was a change in HP theme lead at LEGO, and while Gringotts wasn’t on the cards previously, this could have changed. 

• Correct (yay!)

Gift with purchase set: Ministry of Magic modules (September wave)

The release of the D2C set typically coincide with a promotional offer with a Harry Potter themed gift-with-purchase set. We got the Ministry of Magic set in 2022, which was modular. But it didn’t have that many modules to move around. So my guess was an expansion module or two as promotion. It could be Arthur guarding the entrance to the Hall of Prophecies or maybe Sirius and Bellatrix in the Death Chamber of the Department of Mysteries.

• Incorrect (we did get a gift with purchase set, but it was an expansion set to the Gringotts bank)

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That was all! A few correct guesses, but more wrong ones. I better up my game for 2024 (with a known wave of sets to hit the shops in March, so I’ll once again have to focus on the mid-year sets). It will be interesting to see how well my ideas align. But we’ll have to wait until the official reveal of course till we know for sure.

Till then, Build the Magic!